China Will Lead The Electric Car Revolution With More Than 10.5 Million Sales By 2025, Per Report
China will continue to lead the global market in electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids and by 2025 sales will quietly and cleanly zoom to 10.6 million a year, or 30% of its market, according to a report.
The report, from Germany’s University of Duisberg-Essen’s Center for Automotive Research (CAR), said last year 873,000 electric and plug-in hybrids were sold worldwide, with 507,000 in China. CAR groups these two categories together as New Electric Vehicles (NEV). This amounted to a market share of 2.1% in 2016, while in Germany, Europe’s largest market, 0.8% of sales were of NEVs.
Sales in Europe were about 2/3 of the China figure, and just over half in the U.S., according to EVvolumes.com.
CAR said 409,000 pure electric cars were sold in China last year. CAR expects Chinese electric car sales to soar not least because of subsidies and quotas from the China government. The German manufacturers will struggle to meet this competition.
“As early as 2020, we expect annual sales of 4 million NEVS in China. The state-planned electric car quotas will give important impetus. However market share will accelerate from 2020 and as a result, we predict a 30% market share of NEVs in China by 2025,” CAR said.
AR said China’s vehicle market will rise to 35.5 million by 2025, with electric cars accounting for 10.6 million. Overall sales will reach 28.5 million by 2020.
At the Shanghai Car Show, which is open to the public through April 28, car manufacturers acknowledged that China will lead the way with electric vehicles.
“We are convinced China will become the leading market for electromobility,” Volkswagen brand CEO Herbert Diess told Reuters in Shanghai.
“There is a clear (Chinese) government policy in favor of electromobility – high subsidies and an industrial framework in the form of joint venture companies which are being encouraged to invest in this technology,” Diess said, according to Reuters.
VW unveiled an electric SUV at the show, the I.D. CROZZ, which will go into production in 2020. The CROZZ is VW’s 3rd in its proposed family of purpose-built battery-powered vehicles. The four-wheel drive CROZZ has a 302 hp motor, a top speed of 112 mph and a claimed range of just over 300 miles. Its battery can be charged to 80% of its energy capacity in 30 minutes using a fast-charging system, VW said.
VW has a target of selling 1 million electric vehicles globally by 2025.
The CAR report said China is shaking up the automotive world, while the German industry isn’t doing itself any favors by clinging to the mistaken belief diesels will still be contributing to fuel efficiency by 2030.
“China is changing the world, and even more the Auto world. The prayer like expressions (from the German industry) that the diesel will still have great importance after 2030, doesn’t make sense. Instead of making progress, as in the case of the Chinese in Shanghai, attempts are being made (by the Germans) to reject technical progress with reassuring talk,” CAR said.
Recently, sales of diesels in Europe have slowed suddenly because adverse publicity about their health threat suggests politicians may act to ban them from city centers, or make them unaffordable with swingeing taxes. Potential buyers worry that residual values may be under threat
Still, there are many premium European electric cars on view in Shanghai, including the Jaguar i-Pace, the Audi E-Tron Quattro and a Volvo battery only car, all set for launch next year, CAR said.
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